Economic Ministry estimates Russia's GDP growth at 2.9% in 2021

MOSCOW, Apr 26 (PRIME) -- Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) is to increase by 2.9% in 2021 after falling 3% in 2020, the Economic Development Ministry said in a statement on April 24.

"The 2021 GDP forecast was adjusted to 2.9% (from 3.3% before) taking into account an increase of the 2020 base (a 3% decline against 3.9% expected in September) and a smoother increase of production in the framework of OPEC plus deal, as compared with the terms agreed last April," the ministry said.

The recovery of goods and services consumption, their growth by 5.1% and 11.3% respectively after a 4.1% and 17.3% decline will be the key factor triggering the growth. Fixed capital investment will rise by 3.3% after decreasing by 1.4% in 2020.

Economic growth is to accelerate to 3.2% in 2022 thanks to the end of the OPEC plus deal.

The average Urals price estimate for 2021 rose to U.S. $60.3 per barrel from $45.3, the forecast for 2022 amounts to $54–55. The average export gas price estimate amounts to $200.7 per 1,000 cubic meters as of 2021, $188.3 in 2022 and $179.9 in 2023.

The average ruble rate is expected at 71–72 per U.S. dollar in 2021, 71.8 in 2022 and 72–74 in the medium term.

Inflation will likely amount to 4.3% in 2021 and will be near 4% after that.

Unemployment can fall to 5.2% on average in 2021, real wage can rise by 2% and the real disposable income by 3%.

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